YOU HAVE TWO WEEKS!
Just TWO WEEKS!
Research suggests there is a two-week threshold, indicating whether the stalking behavior will become ingrained and continue (Mullen, et al., 2009). A random-representative study was conducted in the State of Victoria in Australia where they found the duration of stalking ranging from one day to 40 years, with an average of 7.8 months. Over half of the cases lasted one month or less. The researchers created a curve to identify which stalking behaviors continued and impacted victims psychosocially (Mullen, et al., 2009). They found that addressing stalking behaviors as early as possible is critical to the success of ending the behavior before the stalker makes any substantial emotional investment in their pursuit. Once two weeks have elapsed, they have clearly conveyed they are "purposeful" (Mullen, et al., 2009, p. 33). Two weeks allows victims and professionals to work together to recognize the seriousness of their situation and implement interventions to avert physical and psychosocial harm (Mullen, et al., 2009).
Don't wait for action!
Two week Threshold
Two week Threshold
Two week Threshold
Mullen, et al. (2009) reported 45% of the victims who responded to the study found their intrusions lasted on average two days but ended by two weeks.
However, 55% whose intrusions exceeded two weeks lasted on average six months, with an average of 20 intrusions.
Prior relationship
Two week Threshold
Two week Threshold
Research suggests victims who are ex-intimates, acquaintances, work colleagues, estranged friends or family are more likely to be pursued for greater than two weeks. Pursuits may be persistent but can also wax and wane. Reinforcement of this may have to do with proximity or on-going relationships, such as shared custody, or work-relationships (Mullen, et al., 2009). Those who are harassed for two weeks or less, are more likely to be harassed by a stranger, the exception to this may be in cases of celebrity stalking.
Behaviors
Lifestyle changes
Lifestyle changes
Those who are pursued for more than two weeks are at greater risk of being kept under surveillance, loitered upon, phoned repeatedly, and sent letters or emails. They also will experience more forms of intimidation (three on average). The more than two week group also experienced more property damage, threats, assaults, and secondary-victim involvement.
Lifestyle changes
Lifestyle changes
Lifestyle changes
Victimization for two weeks or more is significantly associated with impacts on one's mental health. There is a direct impact from the stalking intrusions, as well as from the resulting necessary lifestyle changes.
Prolonged Stalking
Stalking Persistence
Risk Management stalking literature is often dominated by the discussion of physical violence & assaults. A core tenant of risk management is that the most resources should be directed toward the greatest risk. However, stalking persistence has been shown to lead to significant psychosocial damage, PTSD symptoms, cognitive changes, and a depletion of coping strategies, and socioeconomic losses (McEwan, et al., 2008). Unfortunately, there has been little research focusing on persistence, which is defined as behavior that continues despite intervention, and regardless of a fluctuation of intensity. Distinguishing it from recidivism or recurrence, a persistent stalker may be hindered, by medication, (legal) intervention(s), or threats, but does not stop (McEwan, et al., 2008). However, cessation of stalking is defined as voluntarily discontinuing all stalking behaviors, for at least six months time, while the stalker is not incarcerated or in a mental health facility (McEwan, et al., 2016).
Persistent stalkers create more strain on the system as a whole. They often require more interagency coordination and ongoing management for months or even decades. However, risk of persistence has been shown to be inversely related to the risk of violence. One study found predatory stalkers were among the least persistent, but the most likely to commit an assault (21.1%). Conversely, the most persistent intimacy seekers and resentful stalkers rarely assaulted (5.4%) (McEwan, et al., 2008).
Persistent Stalkers
Less than Two-Weeks
Less than Two-Weeks
Less than Two-Weeks
The majority of stalkers persist beyond two-weeks (87.5%). Those who don't have been found to be of the stranger-relationship (McEwan, et al., 2008). Stalking that lasted less than two-weeks was associated with stalkers who were
- single
- strangers
- under 30 years old
- followed the victim
- but did not write to the victim
More than 12 Weeks
Less than Two-Weeks
Less than Two-Weeks
McEwan, et al. (2008) found a distinct difference in duration of stalking between acquaintance and ex-intimates. The majority of ex-intimates in their sample stalked between two-weeks and one year, while approximately a quarter of ex-intimates continued past one year.
Persistence beyond 12 weeks occurred in 53.5% of their sample (McEwan, et al., 2008). They found three consistent behavioral variables including
- writing to the victim
- sending unsolicited material
- previous stalking of the same victim
McEwan, et al. (2008) identified two models for persistence of 12 weeks or more.
1. Model one found
- intimacy seeking motivation
- single
- over age 30
- completed high school school
- sent unsolicited materials
2. Model two found
- ex-intimate
- age over 30
- with problematic personality traits or a diagnosed personality disorder
- loitered near or spied
- wrote their victim
More than 52 Weeks
Less than Two-Weeks
More than 52 Weeks
Acquaintance stalkers duration was longer than other groups, 42% persisted for longer than one year (McEwan, et al., 2008).
The model for stalkers who persisted for more than one year were more likely to be
- intimacy seekers (32%)
- prior acquaintances
- age over 30
- female stalker gender
- presence of prior threats
McEwan, et al., (2008) found that substituting
- psychosis
Intimacy seeking motivation provided similar results, indicating these two variables may capture the same offenders.
Intimacy seekers were overrepresented (26%) in their study. A separate model for resentful motivation was create McEwan, et al. (2008)
- prior professional relationship
- age over 30
- high school completion
However, there was a correlation between resentful motivation and professional relationships, indicating the variables may not contribute to significant independent information in the model.
Persistence Risk Assessment
Low Risk of Persistence
Stalkers 30 years old or younger, single, strangers to the victim, who follow but do not communicate. These characteristics are typical of predatory and incompetent suitor stalkers who stalk with the goal of obtaining sexual gratification (McEwan, et al., 2008).
Incompetent stalkers pose a low risk of persistent stalking, but a high risk of recurrent stalking.
Predatory stalkers pose a low risk of persistent stalking, though a high risk of violence.
Moderate Risk of Persistence
Stalkers tend to be age 30, pursue prior acquaintances, motivated by resentment or intimacy, tactics include sending or leaving unsolicited gifts or materials (McEwan, et al., 2008). Ex-intimate stalkers engaging in moderately persistent pursuit exhibit different behaviors such as loitering, spying, or writing. Problematic personality traits or a known personality disorder may be present.
High Risk of Persistence
Highly persistent stalkers tend to be over 30, are prior acquaintances, with either intimacy seeking or resentful motivation. Those motivated by resentment are usually professional contacts. McEwan et al. (2016) found 1 in 3 acquaintance stalkers had a psychotic illness compared to only 1 in 10 strangers and 1 in 50 ex-intimates. Highly persistent stalkers may suffer from erotomania, or paranoid delusions, in the context of schizophrenia, with no unique behaviors, although explicit threats may be a unique risk factor (McEwan, et al., 2008). Therefore, acquaintances should be referred to forensic mental health treatment.
McEwan, et al., (2008) found female stalkers were 2.5 times more likely to have psychotic illnesses than male stalkers, which is generally associated with persistence. They suggest considering gender as a secondary factor for persistent stalking.
Recurrence & recidivism
Frequency
McEwan, et al. (2016) found 36% of their participants had engaged in at least one separate stalking episode prior to the index episode. Furthermore, 76% had previously stalked a different victim.
Rosenfeld (2003) found 49% of stalkers reoffended during their seven year study period, based on official criminal reports.
Eke, et al. (2011) found 56% of their participants committed a stalking related offense during the follow-up period.
Foellmi, et al. (2016) used variable follow-up periods, relying on public criminal data, voluntary self-reporting, and clinical reports. This resulted in a follow-up period of approximately between 11.13 months and 5.9 years (M = 2.51), during which time 34% reoffended.
Coupland, et al. (2022) utilized public databases, and observed 45% of the participants had engaged in stalking, at the end of the 20 years. The estimated stalking recidivism was:
- 32% at five years
- 39% 10 years
- 74% at 20 years
Duration
Rosenfeld (2003) Furthermore, 80% reoffended 11.9-month, whereas those who did not reoffend were at risk of an average of 71.6-months.
Eke, et al. (2011) stalking recidivists had a average time of 11-months but, 47% occurred within three months and 24% within 24-hours.
Foellmi, et al. (2016) found 61.3% stalkers reoffended within the first year.
Coupland, et al. (2022) the average reoffense time 13.47 years, The first re-offense occurred one day after discharge, with a maximum of 20.71 years.
Associated with Recidivism
McEwan, et al. (2016) created a predictive model for recurrent stalking
- personality disorder (specifically Cluster B)
- age over 30 years
- high criminal versatility & past offending
- prior acquaintance relationship
- erotomania delusions
They concluded that recurrent stalkers have more risk factors 75% of the time. Therefore, risk factors are different from persistence, 76% of recurrent stalkers targeted different victims (McEwan, et al., 2016).
Coupland, et al. (2022) found those who are judged as moderate to high risk on Case Prioritization and Risk for Continued Stalking were five-nine times more likely to reoffend against their index victim compared to those who were judged to have low risk, who reoffended less frequently, and also more slowly.
Rosenfeld (2003) found three variables to be significantly associated with recidivism
- Age
- Prior relationship status
- Personality disorder
He also found an interaction between substance abuse and personality disorder. He did not find that these variables work independently to affect recidivism. However, McEwan, et al., (2016) did not find this interaction for recurrence.
Eke, et al. (2011) suggests variables significantly associated with stalking recidivism include
- Higher Cormier Lang criminal history score
- Mental health history.
Coupland, et al. (2022) found that variables at all three time periods were associated with continued stalking:
- Communication about and/or with the victim
- Intimidation and/or threats to the victim
- Violation of PPOs
- Anger and/or lack of repentance
Not Associated
Delusional disorder diagnosis was identified as having a negative association with reoffending. Rosenfeld (2003) found those diagnosed with a delusion disorder demonstrate a "plateau of reoffending." This means they are likely to reoffend within the first few months, or not at all, even when other variables, such as substance use, are considered (p. 262).
Other factors of the stalker
- Criminal record history
- Previous violence
- Psychiatric hospitalization
- Gender
- Substance abuse
- Age
- Ethnicity
showed no association with recidivism (Rosenfeld, 2003; Coupland, et al, 2022).
Nor did the personal variables of the victim, such as gender or relationship, i.e. ex-intimate, impact recidivism (Coupland, et al, 2022; Foellmi, et al., 2016).
Conditional Release
Eke, et al. (2011) found that 70% of stalkers violated conditional release as part of their first re-offense. On average, these release violations occurred within five months, while 49% occurred within 40 days. On average, this stalking occurred within 7.2 months.
Violence & Recidivism
Eke, et al. (2011) found that most reported violent recidivism against an intimate partner, either the index victim (17%), their new partner (35%), their family member or friend (9%), the stalkers family/friend (9%) or other (22%).